Two decades after the Berlin Wall and Iron Curtain were torn down, the so-called Green Line running across Cyprus stands as an affront to Europe's claims of modern-day unity. Guarded by the United Nations, the buffer zone was set up in 1974 when the island saw a Greek-backed coup followed by a Turkish invasion of the north that still has much of the island under Turkish control. A Cold War relic, the partition effectively creates two separate states: a Turkish Cypriot minority in the island's north and a Greek Cypriot majority in the south.
Many attempts have been made to reconcile Cyprus' two parts. Indeed, the leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities have held about 70 meetings over the past 18 months, and appeared to be inching closer to a settlement to reunify the island. But the peace process stuttered on Sunday after the Turkish Cypriot community elected a hard-liner as their new leader. (See the top 10 news stories of 2009.)
Dervis Eroglu, 72, leader of the conservative National Unity Party, won 50.3% of the vote, compared with just under 43% for the incumbent Turkish Cypriot President, Mehmet Ali Talat. While Talat was a strong supporter of the renewed peace process and ultimately of the reunification of Cyprus, the hawkish Eroglu wants to see separate Greek and Turkish Cypriot states. During the campaign, Eroglu talked of "equal, sovereign peoples," and rejected a solution that would permit Greek Cypriots to reclaim their property in the north.
His staunch language worries the European Union and Turkey, which sees Cyprus as the key to their entire relationship. Turkey has been told categorically that it cannot hope to fulfill its dream of joining the E.U. while it is mired in a territorial dispute involving a military standoff. "Without a solution to Cyprus, Turkey cannot realistically expect to join," says Amanda Paul, an analyst at the European Policy Center, a Brussels-based think tank. "This election is not the end of the road yet, but the hopes for a settlement have met an obstacle." (See pictures of Istanbul.)
Paul says the Turkish government will maintain pressure on Eroglu to remain at the negotiating table. Ankara is keen to extract itself from the island, where it still maintains about 35,000 troops, provides an annual subsidy of some $600 million and is the only country in the world to officially recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. As for Turkish Cypriots, they are already squeezed by migrants from Turkey, and today account for just over half the population of the north. And without a settlement, the north will remain an international pariah: unrecognized and isolated, dependent on the Turkish army and Turkish aid.
Speaking on Sunday night, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan insisted that Ankara remains heavily behind the Cyprus peace process. "Turkish Cypriots must continue the talks," he said. "It is our aim to find a solution by the end of the year." The European Commission was equally supportive of talks. "The status quo is in no one's interest," it said in a statement. (Rank Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2010 TIME 100 poll.)
Nominally, the entire island of Cyprus is in the E.U., though effective membership is confined to the internationally recognized south's Greek Cypriots, who represent about 80% of the island's population of 1.1 million. But since joining the E.U. in 2004, Cyprus has blocked parts of Turkey's E.U. membership negotiation bid. At the same time, Ankara hasn't helped its case by refusing to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot traffic.
Yet Greek Cypriots would likely suffer too if Turkish troops remain indefinitely in the occupied north: they could forfeit chances for restitution of occupied property and find themselves living in a partial ghetto on the far eastern margin of Europe. As Eroglu's election victory was confirmed, the Greek Cypriot government, headed by President Dimitris Christofias, warned that prospects for a settlement had narrowed. "This could cause very serious problems to the negotiations," a government spokesman said.
Hugh Pope, the Turkey-Cyprus project director for the International Crisis Group, says it will be hard to keep the peace process on track if one side is a reluctant negotiator. "All sides say they want to keep talking, but there is a huge trust issue between them," he says. (See a TIME Postcard from Cyprus.)
Indeed, Pope says, Eroglu's fiery rhetoric proved a vote winner in part because of the legacies of distrust, inertia and complacency that have bred cynicism among Turkish Cypriots about the peace process. "As time goes by, the chances get less and less that we can end this frozen conflict," he says. "If I was to make a bet, I would say Cyprus is likely to remain as it is for the next five years - in fact, as it has remained since 1974." It's a grim prospect, but until the island's two communities have faith in their common future, the Green Line will continue to divide them.
See "Missing Corpse Clouds Cyprus Peace Process."
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