Guardian: Jobless claims up
Can anybody make up to me why the fuck Bush told us 48h ago that the economy is on a solid foundation? I think Bush should join Britney Spears in psychiatry.
Can anybody make up to me why the fuck Bush told us 48h ago that the economy is on a solid foundation? He was saying this shit yesterday while the Dow had already dropped 200 FUCKING POINTS!Compared to Junior, Britney's not only sane, she's the head of Mensa.
Supreme Commander Thor
Right, because we're on the verge of a Great Depression. I see an apple cart coming down the street as I type this.Econ 102
always told that the people of new hampshire had an independent streakand would not be influenced by msm or results from iowa. seems the folks of new hampshire are lining up just as wall street would like.hilldick
At least Bush tricked for Obama. Still thinkin about what I think of Obama thus
Right, because we're on the verge of a Great Depression. I see an apple cart coming down the street as I type this.Econ 102Be sure to hang that quote on the wall, so you can laugh at how stupid you sound in 6 months when the Bush recession is in full throated spiral.Found those WMDs yet?melior
So where will the 150000 men returning from Iraq work, Mr.Obama? Mc Donalds?
http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/alerts/322
http://www.americablog.com/2008/01/bush-economy-is-on-solid-foundation.html
Dow tumbles over 250 points after weaker-than-expected jobs report revives recession worries. The Nasdaq plunges.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tanked Friday, with the Dow shedding over 250 points, after a weaker-than-expected December jobs report exacerbated recession fears.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) tumbled almost 2 percent. The broader S&P 500 (INX) index lost around 2.5 percent. The Russell 2000 (RUT.X) small-cap index fell 3.2 percent.
The Nasdaq (COMPX) composite lost 3.8 percent, or just over 98 points. According to Stock Trader's Almanac, it was the tech-heavy index's biggest one-day point loss since Sept. 17, 2001, the first day the market reopened for trading after having been closed in the aftermath of 9/11. On that day, the Nasdaq lost 115.83 points.
A weaker-than-expected unemployment rate sparked a big stock selloff. Bonds rallied, as investors sought safety and the dollar fell versus other major currencies. Oil and gold prices retreated from recent records.
Employers added 18,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, short of forecasts for 70,000 and down from a revised 115,000 in the previous month. The 18,000 figure marked the weakest monthly jobs growth since August 2003. (Full story).
The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, rose to 5 percent - a more than two-year low - from 4.7 percent in the previous month. Economists thought it would rise to 4.8 percent.
Average hourly earnings, the report's inflation component, rose 0.4 percent after rising a revised 0.4 percent in the previous month. Economists thought wages would rise 0.3 percent.
Stocks have been volatile for months as investors have mulled the fallout from the housing and credit market crises, and worried that the economy could be heading into recession.
The weak labor market report amplified those worries.
"In September, October and November we saw pretty solid payroll numbers, indicating that although the economy was in a bit of a slowdown, the jobs market was holding up, giving us some sort of floor," said Georges Yared, chief investment strategist at Yared Investment Research. "That floor was pulled out from under us this morning."
In the next few months, investors will be looking to see if the December employment report was a temporary indication or the start of a longer-term downtrend for the labor market.
"Jobs growth in the month was moribund and we should expect it to be moribund for a while," said Brett Hammond, chief investment strategist at TIAA-CREF. "But I think we shouldn't get too overwhelmed by the notion of a recession yet."
He said that economic growth prospects look to pick up in the second half of the year, and that by that point the housing issues will be "through the trough," although the woes for that sector won't be over yet.
In the short-term, investors will be looking to see how the Dec. jobs report impacts near-term Federal Reserve policy, with bets now rising that the central bank could cut rates more aggressively, perhaps at the next meeting on Jan. 29 and 30. (Full story)
The Federal Reserve announced Friday that it will lend up to $60 billion this month to banks through its new auction process as a means of easing the credit crunch.
Treasury prices climbed, as investors sought safety in the comparably less risky government debt. The rise lowered the yield on the 10-year note to 3.84 percent from 3.89 percent late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
In currency trading, the dollar slipped versus the yen and the euro.
U.S. light crude oil for February fell $1.27 to settle at $97.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after hitting a record trading high above $100 a barrel during Thursday's session.
COMEX gold for February delivery fell $3.40 to settle at $869.10 an ounce, pulling back from an all-time high hit Wednesday.
Jobs weak, unemployment soars
Stock declines were broad based, with 29 out of 30 Dow components falling, led by tech stocks such as Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) and financial companies such as Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).
Intel's decline followed a JP Morgan downgrade to "neutral" from "overweight." Separately, the chipmaker said it is pulling out of the One Laptop Per Child program.
Intel also trades on the Nasdaq and was among the 96 components of the Nasdaq 100 that fell on the session.
A slew of retail stocks fell on concerns that weaker job growth will slam consumer spending. The S&P Retail index lost nearly 4 percent.
Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners by more than three to one on volume of 1.26 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers four to one as 2.07 billion shares changed hands.
In other economic news, the Institute for Supply Management's reading on the services sector showed a smaller monthly decline than economists had been expecting. (Full story).
Wall Street also considered the results from Thursday's Iowa caucuses, which kicked off the 2008 presidential election. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won on the Republican side and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois won for the Democrats.
Stocks were mixed Thursday as a jump in factory orders helped temper concerns about inflation as oil and gold prices hit record highs.
GUARDIAN
Shares went into sharp retreat on both sides of the Atlantic today as gloomy jobs data from the United States heightened fears over prospects for the global economy.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 180 points, taking it below the 13,000 level. In London, earlier gains were wiped out, with the FTSE 100 index trading more than 140 points down towards the close.
Unemployment in the US rose to its highest level in more than two years last month as the job-creation machine in the world's biggest economy virtually ground to a halt, according to figures released in Washington today.
The Labor Department prompted fresh speculation on Wall Street that the Feberal Reserve would cut interest rates later this month when it said the jobless rate rose from 4.7% to 5% in December. It also sent the FTSE 100 index down into negative territory, wiping out earlier gains, and pushed the dollar down against a range of currencies including sterling.
Employers added a mere 18,000 jobs last month - the weakest performance by non-farm payrolls since 2003, when the economy was starting to recover from the short-lived recession that followed the collapse of the dotcom bubble.
Economists had expected 70,000 jobs to be created last month, and bond prices rallied immediately after the announcement by the Labor department in anticipation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for a fourth time in a row at the end of this month.
Pierre Ellis, senior economist at Decision Economics in New York said: "The bond market rallied because the unemployment rate moved up in a shocking way and that's the sort of political dynamite that may make the Fed more prone to easing than otherwise."
President Bush was meeting with the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, and the treasury secretary, Hank Paulson, today to discuss ways of boosting the economy.
A breakdown of today's official US data showed that during December, manufacturing industries shed 31,000 jobs and construction businesses cut another 49,000. There were 31,000 more government jobs creater and 44,000 were added in education and health services, but retail industries cut more than 24,000 jobs.
Weekly hours of work were unchanged at 33.8 in December but overtime hours dropped to 3.9 from 4.1 in November.
CNN Money:jobless claims
Jobs weak, unemployment soars
Employers add fewer to payrolls than forecast, and the jobless rate hits 5%, a two-year high.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/04/news/economy/jobs_december/index.htm
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The nation's labor market worsened in December to the weakest level since the shock that followed Hurricane Katrina, as the problems in housing and mortgages took a bite out of job opportunities.
Employers added far fewer jobs in the month than had been forecast, while the unemployment rate shot up to 5 percent, which was a two-year high, according to a government report Friday.
Stocks sold off sharply on rising fears of a possible recession and there was a widespread belief in the markets that the Federal Reserve would have to respond to this report with a sharp drop in interest rates.
"December's bleak jobs report represents the siren call that this business cycle is just about over," said Bernard Baumohl, the managing director of the Economic Outlook Group, an economic research firm in Princeton, NJ. "We're about to tilt over to the other side of the economic curve and begin the downswing."
But some other economists suggested the report was not as weak as it appears.
"Yes, job creation is slowing, but 5 percent unemployment does not a recession make," said Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research.
He said part of the problem with the report was an ice storm that hit much of the central United States the week the Labor Department was collecting data. Many of the tens of thousands of workers unable to get to their jobs due to the storm were not counted as employed if they didn't get paid for their missed work.
David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's, agreed with Yamarone that unemployment is at a historically low standard. But he said the steady rise in the number of Americans who describe themselves as unemployed is a concern because it could put the brakes on consumer spending going forward. Wyss said he now believes there's about a 50-50 chance of a recession this year, up slightly from his previous estimate of a 40 percent chance of a recession before this report.
"The unemployment rate is key for people. People are going to get nervous," he said. "There were a couple of special factors. But even when you adjust for those factors, this is bad."
The report showed a net gain of 18,000 jobs in the month, down sharply from the revised 115,000 gain reported in November, the Labor Department said. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a gain of 70,000 jobs.
The December job gains figure was the weakest one-month gain in jobs since a loss was reported in August 2003. It capped a 2007 that was the weakest for job growth since 2004. The average level of Americans with jobs during the year was up 1.8 million compared to 2006, with the second half of the year seeing much weaker gains than the first half. And even before this report, most economists were forecasting further sharp declines in employment gains in 2008, with an increase of close to 1 million in the full-year average, and many months when there is a net decline in U.S. payrolls.
The weak report raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will make another deep rate cut at its meeting on Jan. 31. While stocks fell, the bond yield also fell sharply. Investors trading fed funds futures were pricing in a 75 percent chance that the central bank would move to cut rates by a half percentage point at the end of the month, up from a 67 percent chance of a cut that deep at the close of trading Thursday.
The 5 percent unemployment rate was the highest reading since November 2005, when job losses from Hurricane Katrina were still being felt. The unemployment rate had been 4.7 percent in November, and economists had expected it to creep higher to just 4.8 percent.
The rise was the biggest one-month jump in the unemployment rate since August 2001, when the nation was in a recession.
The report found a 49,000 seasonally adjusted drop in construction jobs. While home building has been sharply off for most of 2007, the losses in construction as a whole had been limited by strong non-residential building, such as offices and government projects. But this time there were job losses across all of the various sectors of construction.
In addition, manufacturing jobs fell by 31,000. Once again, the losses were spread throughout the sector, not limited to the battered auto industry where job losses were well known, and included appliance makers as well as manufacturers of electronics, computers, clothing and other nondurable goods.
The service sector fared better, adding 93,000 jobs as a whole. But even in that sector there was weakness, as retailers trimmed 24,000 workers in the seasonally-adjusted estimate, as many of them reported weaker-than-hoped December sales ahead of the holiday.
"Now we've seen the lackluster holiday retail season show up in jobs," said Tig Gilliam, CEO of Adecco Group North America, a unit of the world's largest staffing firm.
But Gilliam said for the most part most of his clients not in housing and mortgage lending are continuing to look to add staff. And he said one encouraging part of the report is that some of the job losses in banking seem to have played themselves out.
The group of employers that includes lenders continued to cut jobs, according to the report. They responded to the problems in the mortgage markets by trimming 7,000 more jobs, although that is actually the smallest cut by that group of employers since July. Banks saw employment stay basically unchanged.
"I don't think we've seen the end of problems, but we had previously lost 80,000 [lender] jobs," he said. "This latest report suggests to me a lot of the job adjustments around subprime have been made."
There as also an impact from the writers' strike that hit Hollywood and the nation's television networks, as the motion picture and sound recording industries reported a drop of nearly 12,000 jobs.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/03/news/economy/jobs_outlook/index.htm
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The labor market is expected to end 2007 with a whimper, but even that modest forecast could be seen as "the good old days," since monthly job losses may become common in the year ahead, according to economists.
The December employment report due at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday should see a net gain of 70,000 jobs in the month, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com, down from the 94,000 gain reported in November.
That gain is roughly half of what is seen as necessary to keep pace with the growth in the nation's labor force, and economists are expecting the unemployment rate to edge up to 4.8 percent, a 22-month high for that key measure.
Those forecasts were made before Thursday's ADP National Employment Report for December showed only a 40,000 job gain in the private sector in the month, sharply off of the 173,000 gain it calculated for November. The report uses payroll data from hundreds of businesses, both large and small.
The Monster Employment Index, which tracks online job search listings, also fell 14 points in December, with only about half of that decline attributed to seasonal factor, according to the firm.
With economists looking for economic growth to stall in the months ahead, many are forecasting that employers will get very cautious with their hiring plans going forward. While much of the job weakness in 2007 was concentrated in residential construction, manufacturing and finance, many believe that weakness will spread this year.
"At the margins, businesses are being more cautious about spending," said economist David Kelly, the chief market strategist for JPMorgan Funds. "Consumers are addicts and they'll keep spending. But if businesses expect recession and put in hiring freezes, that'll have an impact."
Kelly believes there are quarters ahead that will notch a net loss of jobs, even if the overall economy continues to grow. And many economists say they're nervous about whether the economy will be able to keep growing this year.
"If nothing else goes wrong, we'll avoid a recession," said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's. "Unfortunately I can give you a long list of things that can go wrong right now -- oil prices, currency weakness, foreign confidence in the U.S. declining, the credit crunch, housing prices, consumer and investor panic."
Wyss said he believes the chance of a recession this year stands at about 40 percent, but that even if the economy continues to dodge those bullets, he's looking for much weaker job growth in the year ahead. He's forecasting just under 1 million jobs added in 2008, which would be down from his estimate of about 1.5 million jobs added last year.
But Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics for Moody's Economy.com, said he's looking for about a 60 percent drop in hiring in 2008 if the economy avoids a recession, and possibly a job loss for the year if economic activity starts to decline. And his firm now puts the chance of a recession at 50 percent.
"If it's the wrong side of that 50 percent, then we see employment losses starting in the middle of the year and lasting for two or three quarters," he said. "Our baseline forecast is still for weak expansion, but even if that's the case, the weakness in the labor market is going to spread. We certainly could see a few negative months mixed up in there."
Some executives involved in job searches believe that employers will keep hiring this year, but most of them agree with economists forecasting that job gains will slow.
John Challenger, CEO of the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas which tracks layoff announcements, said that the 2007 layoff announcements were at seven year low, and ended with December showing the lowest level of job cuts announcements of the year.
"It seems likely to me that fears of market collapse or recession are overblown and creation will come in stronger than most people expect," he said. "When you see job loss and downsizing slowing down, you'll inevitably see job creation. What's remarkable about the last six months is that given the fears out there, we haven't seen job cutting and declines outside of housing and automotive."
Jonas Prising, president for North America for staffing firm Manpower agrees employers have not been shaken by the subprime mortgage meltdown as much as many feared. He points to his firm's survey of first quarter hiring plans, conducted in November, which showed 22 percent of employers still expect to add to their payrolls during the first quarter of 2008, while 12 percent expect to reduce staff levels, readings that were little changed from a year earlier.
"The job market will soften somewhat and not fall off a cliff," said Prising. "Employers are more cautious when they're hiring. They'll go to greater steps before they add people to payrolls. But they're still hiring.
Richard Castellini, the vice president of consumer marketing for the online job search site CareeBuilder.com, said he could see net job gains slowing to 50,000 a month, but he doubts there will be job losses.
"We see a slowing but still a steady hiring," he said."There's still strong demand across a lot of areas."
Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors, which processes the ADP payroll services data to produce that firm's monthly employment report, said that the smaller employers tracked by the firm have continued with strong hiring levels, even as large employers trimmed jobs in the December reading.
"The one thing you can say for sure, small businesses continue to be the powerhouse of employment. It's pretty impressive," he said. His forecast is for job growth to average about 90,000 a month throughout 2008, down almost 30 percent from 2007's gains. But he sees stronger gains being posted in the later portion of the year.
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